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June 2008 Real Estate Market Statistics and Indicators - Housing Market

By reibrain on June 27th, 2008

June 2008 Real Estate Market Statistics and Indicators - Housing Market

A new month again.  Man, 2008 is rolling by so fast!

Here are our June 2008 Real Estate Market Statistics and Indicators, as always… from our friends at John Burns Real Estate Consulting .

From the looks of these real estate stats, it looks like the price corrections aren’t quite what the news media was reporting… or what most Americans think.

Enjoy!

Price Corrections Are Not As Bad As Reported

It is true that home prices have corrected more than any time in the past, and further price declines are likely. However, the methodology used to track home prices is overstating the actual correction. Some examples of reported overstatements thus far are a 36% decline in value in Sacramento, a 31% decline in Port St. Lucie, a 24% decline in Las Vegas, a 24% decline in Orange County, and a 20% decline in Tampa.

The problem is that there has been a tremendous shift in the activity of what is selling, which is impacting even the best price indices, such as Case-Shiller-Weiss. Here is what you need to know:

  1. Small Sample Sizes: Home buying activity has plummeted, which has significantly reduced the sample size of what is selling. Our research shows that sales volumes have plummeted back to early 1990s levels in many areas of the country. A low sample size reduces the validity of the conclusions.

  2. Dominance of Foreclosures: Today, the low sample size is dominated by foreclosures and short sales. In Sacramento last month, 65% of the sales volume was a foreclosure or short sale. Our research shows that foreclosure sales are heavily concentrated in certain submarkets, which is generally the poorer inner-city areas and the most outlying areas.

  3. The Use of Median Prices: Median prices are the best measure to track because the median-priced home is the home where half of the homes sold are more expensive, and half are less expensive. In normal times, this home represents a 20-year-old, 1,600 square foot detached home in a typical suburb. Therefore, in normal times, comparing year-over-year price changes is relatively representative of most homes in the market. However, the median transaction today is more likely to be 1,400-square-foot, less desirable home in the inner city or a new home sold at auction.

  4. Bigger Price Declines on Distressed Home Sales: The most sophisticated measures like Case-Shiller-Weiss only examine the price changes on the same home, so the mix shift is supposed to be eliminated. However, when more than 50% of the activity is a distressed sale, the median transaction is a home that was sold under duress and in a severely distressed neighborhood. This is not representative of the value of most homes in the metro area.

While the housing market and banking industry are under severe duress, it is important to know that most homeowners have not seen the decline in home value that is being reported in the newspaper. As always, we emphasize that the best decision makers use the most accurate information to make decisions.

Permits Statistics
Employment Statistics
Affordability
12-
12-
Total
NF Payroll Employment
State

Metro Area
Month

S. Fam. Permits
Month

Total Permits
Permits / Peak Permits
1-Yr Growth
1-Yr Growth Rate
Unemp Rate
Median Home Price
Housing Costs / Income
Housing Cycle Barometer
Alabama
Anniston-Oxford 216 426 90.3% 300 0.6% 3.4% $92,510 24% 3.2
Auburn-Opelika 1,073 1,272 57.7% 1,300 2.4% 3.2% $140,462 35% 2.3
Birmingham 3,996 4,949 63.4% 1,600 0.3% 3.1% $157,764 32% 3.6
Decatur 330 406 43.1% 900 1.5% 3.4% $101,093 24% 3.3
Dothan 325 325 43.4% (700) (1.1%) 3.3% $100,867 26% 4.2
Florence 330 519 66.3% 1,200 2.1% 3.5% $97,446 22% 0.2
Huntsville 2,806 3,966 79.4% 4,700 2.2% 2.5% $129,963 23% 1.3
Mobile 1,758 2,729 94.8% 1,500 0.8% 3.5% $137,706 33% 5.6
Montgomery 920 1,630 62.5% 1,900 1.1% 3.6% $146,048 31% 5.2
Tuscaloosa 764 1,925 72.9% (100) (0.1%) 3.0% $126,277 29% 0.4
Alaska
Anchorage 353 847 9.4% 1,300 0.8% 6.2% $218,156 31% 5.1
Arizona
Flagstaff 421 431 31.7% (300) (0.5%) 3.4% $241,983 45% 5.7
Phoenix 20,259 29,278 42.3% (3,100) (0.2%) 3.2% $216,500 34% 5.5
Prescott 1,174 1,275 28.5% 1,000 1.5% 3.5% $217,260 46% 5.1
Tucson 3,936 4,877 38.0% (5,700) (1.5%) 3.5% $200,000 38% 5.4
Yuma 911 987 36.6% 1,400 2.6% 11.2% $171,600 38% 5.6
Arkansas
Fayetteville 1,848 3,364 44.3% 1,900 0.9% 3.5% $120,832 22% 0.0
Fort Smith 657 948 72.1% 1,100 0.9% 4.3% $81,795 17% 0.1
Little Rock 2,508 3,119 54.3% 3,600 1.0% 3.9% $128,085 22% 2.6
California
Bakersfield 2,575 3,467 39.1% 2,800 1.2% 9.7% $199,000 35% 5.4
Chico 763 783 39.4% 1,400 1.8% 7.4% $241,000 45% 5.5
El Centro 323 500 22.7% (200) (0.4%) 18.4% $188,000 39% 4.2
Fresno 2,733 3,710 50.0% 1,700 0.6% 10.0% $220,000 44% 6.3
Hanford 349 365 27.0% 500 1.4% 10.2% $169,250 31% 5.4
Los Angeles 5,624 16,429 23.4% 2,200 0.1% 5.7% $450,000 71% 6.5
Madera 364 371 16.4% 1,000 2.9% 9.6% $216,000 51% 7.1
Merced 567 678 18.5% 1,000 1.7% 12.3% $178,000 35% 4.1
Modesto 1,014 1,569 24.8% (200) (0.1%) 10.7% $220,000 39% 5.1
Monterey 554 990 35.1% 2,000 1.6% 7.9% $370,000 54% 4.0
Napa 218 274 27.3% (400) (0.6%) 4.4% $485,000 64% 6.4
Oakland 3,070 6,178 26.8% (5,800) (0.6%) 5.3% $430,000 50% 4.2
Orange County 1,896 6,434 25.8% (19,700) (1.3%) 4.4% $555,000 65% 6.4
Redding 449 622 26.3% 800 1.2% 9.2% $232,500 44% 5.7
Riverside-San Bernardino 10,887 14,590 25.3% (17,900) (1.4%) 6.8% $270,000 41% 5.4
Sacramento 5,115 5,977 25.1% 800 0.1% 6.1% $257,750 37% 3.9
San Diego 2,751 6,052 13.7% 2,700 0.2% 5.0% $430,000 56% 5.0
San Francisco 888 4,514 67.0% 22,700 2.3% 4.2% $785,000 90% 7.0
San Jose 1,520 3,384 33.7% 12,100 1.3% 5.2% $681,000 70% 7.3
San Luis Obispo 833 1,195 33.2% (600) (0.6%) 4.8% $457,500 78% 6.9
Santa Barbara 377 443 16.2% 400 0.2% 4.6% $375,000 59% 5.1
Santa Cruz 338 836 59.2% 800 0.8% 7.2% $650,000 88% 7.0
Santa Rosa 725 1,007 17.3% 800 0.4% 4.9% $420,000 59% 5.6
Stockton 1,454 1,700 24.1% 3,400 1.6% 9.6% $239,000 37% 3.1
Vallejo-Fairfield 568 645 10.3% (1,900) (1.5%) 6.0% $319,000 41% 5.1
Ventura 574 1,261 16.8% (4,300) (1.5%) 5.2% $485,000 56% 5.6
Visalia-Porterville 1,898 2,377 66.5% 500 0.4% 10.3% $175,000 35% 5.2
Yuba-Sutter 472 560 18.4% (800) (1.9%) 11.8% $194,750 37% 4.1
Colorado
Boulder 361 652 12.7% 2,700 1.6% 3.6% $340,000 44% 5.9
Colorado Springs 2,356 2,676 24.3% 3,100 1.2% 5.1% $196,750 28% 3.4
Denver 6,633 12,649 44.3% 22,000 1.8% 4.3% $214,000 30% 3.7
Fort Collins 980 1,455 39.7% 2,300 1.7% 3.7% $212,900 29% 2.8
Grand Junction 1,094 1,212 59.3% 2,900 4.7% 3.3% $183,311 32% 5.0
Greeley 1,274 1,385 31.4% 2,200 2.7% 4.5% $158,250 24% 0.1
Pueblo 551 561 39.0% 1,300 2.2% 5.4% $98,495 21% 0.4
Connecticut
Bridgeport 1,313 2,214 42.0% 5,900 1.4% 4.1% $463,902 49% 0.8
Hartford 1,707 2,397 22.2% 8,900 1.6% 4.6% $244,887 32% 2.5
New Haven 739 1,078 14.7% 0 0.0% 4.7% $261,373 35% 2.3
Delaware
Dover 1,159 1,385 63.5% (500) (0.8%) 3.7% $200,318 37% 6.9
Wilmington 1,332 2,049 31.9% (800) (0.2%) 3.9% $227,175 33% 5.8
District of Columbia
Washington D.C. 10,290 16,415 43.2% 27,800 1.2% 3.2% $385,548 40% 6.7
Florida
Daytona Beach 1,326 2,063 26.0% (2,300) (1.3%) 5.0% $161,100 32% 5.2
Fort Lauderdale 1,433 3,234 16.6% (5,500) (0.7%) 4.2% $277,600 43% 6.0
Fort Myers 2,498 3,361 11.5% (12,600) (5.3%) 6.4% $193,000 32% 4.3
Fort Walton Beach 479 560 15.1% (800) (0.9%) 3.4% $199,615 31% 5.1
Gainesville 710 1,500 45.3% 2,100 1.6% 3.0% $186,577 41% 5.4
Jacksonville 6,380 9,171 36.6% (700) (0.1%) 4.5% $175,400 29% 5.4
Lakeland 3,330 3,958 30.0% (3,800) (1.7%) 4.9% $150,000 28% 5.1
Melbourne 1,638 2,458 24.8% (1,300) (0.6%) 5.1% $147,000 25% 3.9
Miami 2,464 6,785 26.0% (3,600) (0.3%) 4.7% $300,000 58% 7.6
Naples 839 1,510 18.5% (6,300) (4.6%) 4.9% $408,150 59% 6.8
Ocala 1,860 1,913 25.7% (800) (0.8%) 5.9% $145,000 29% 5.6
Orlando 9,294 16,303 45.1% 6,200 0.6% 4.4% $215,000 36% 6.1
Panama City 584 834 15.1% (300) (0.4%) 4.1% $194,264 35% 5.9
Pensacola 1,583 2,012 31.2% 1,200 0.7% 4.2% $153,924 27% 3.3
Port St. Lucie 1,599 2,016 18.7% (400) (0.3%) 5.9% $169,000 29% 4.6
Tallahassee 1,679 2,369 55.3% (600) (0.3%) 3.3% $172,161 36% 5.0
Tampa 6,835 10,015 26.4% (13,800) (1.1%) 4.9% $165,000 30% 5.2
West Palm Beach 1,975 3,543 15.3% (6,100) (1.0%) 4.8% $260,000 38% 5.2
Georgia
Albany 391 480 38.1% 0 0.0% 5.1% $94,816 22% 1.8
Athens 819 893 37.9% 700 0.9% 4.1% $139,298 27% 0.1
Atlanta 24,580 35,056 47.4% 28,600 1.2% 4.9% $165,506 22% 1.3
Augusta 2,357 2,733 49.9% 700 0.3% 5.0% $117,387 23% 2.3
Columbus 985 1,380 60.5% (200) (0.2%) 5.1% $112,010 21% 0.1
Dalton 413 537 48.9% (1,200) (1.5%) 5.6% $110,374 20% 0.1
Gainesville 865 874 33.3% 400 0.5% 4.2% $150,024 26% 2.0
Macon 970 1,286 67.5% (600) (0.6%) 5.3% $102,801 19% 0.1
Savannah 2,153 2,971 61.1% 1,000 0.6% 4.4% $148,156 26% 4.3
Valdosta 928 1,106 75.6% (400) (0.7%) 4.3% $111,704 26% 2.6
Warner Robins 934 985 46.6% 700 1.2% 4.2% $105,426 16% 0.1
Hawaii
Honolulu 866 2,211 44.6% 4,000 0.9% 3.0% $609,535 79% 5.7
Idaho
Boise City 3,159 4,060 35.2% (200) (0.1%) 3.2% $192,615 30% 5.1
Coeur D’Alene 871 1,347 50.1% 2,500 4.6% 3.9% $193,394 34% 5.1
Illinois
Bloomington 398 553 32.6% 300 0.3% 4.0% $142,473 25% 0.0
Champaign-Urbana 521 1,082 49.7% (400) (0.3%) 4.3% $140,740 28% 4.4
Chicago 10,900 23,301 53.0% 8,500 0.2% 5.4% $240,000 39% 6.1
Decatur 137 149 25.0% 200 0.4% 5.7% $74,016 16% 0.2
Lake-Kenosha 1,815 2,154 33.3% 2,100 0.5% 5.1% $264,178 33% 4.8
Peoria 1,006 1,268 65.5% 1,200 0.6% 4.5% $119,724 22% 5.3
Rockford 818 1,011 38.5% (1,400) (0.9%) 7.2% $111,441 21% 5.7
Springfield 420 566 36.5% 0 0.0% 4.5% $109,112 20% 2.2
Indiana
Bloomington 436 758 62.1% 1,200 1.4% 3.9% $126,489 26% 0.3
Elkhart-Goshen 520 593 35.8% (3,000) (2.3%) 5.0% $110,855 19% 0.1
Evansville 756 1,003 46.1% 3,600 2.0% 4.3% $96,317 19% 1.8
Fort Wayne 912 1,035 28.1% (3,200) (1.5%) 4.9% $90,066 16% 0.1
Gary 1,930 2,751 59.5% 1,000 0.4% 4.7% $126,081 21% 0.2
Indianapolis 6,227 7,518 43.7% 8,000 0.9% 4.1% $115,435 18% 0.1
Lafayette 583 828 45.2% 100 0.1% 4.1% $109,894 22% 0.1
Muncie 106 116 20.3% (500) (0.9%) 5.6% $82,968 19% 0.2
South Bend 644 1,086 54.7% (100) (0.1%) 5.0% $88,045 16% 0.2
Terre Haute 221 376 54.8% (900) (1.2%) 5.5% $78,588 17% 0.1
Iowa
Cedar Rapids 809 1,141 55.5% 300 0.2% 3.4% $136,610 24% 4.4
Davenport 622 1,036 68.1% 600 0.3% 4.3% $107,027 20% 3.8
Des Moines 2,877 3,601 57.2% 3,800 1.2% 3.3% $152,659 23% 3.2
Dubuque 273 316 36.2% (300) (0.5%) 4.1% $116,455 20% 0.2
Iowa City 645 801 47.2% 600 0.7% 2.4% $153,481 27% 0.1
Sioux City 239 278 23.5% (1,400) (1.9%) 3.3% $89,210 17% 0.2
Waterloo 389 422 50.2% 900 1.0% 3.4% $117,080 21% 6.1
Kansas
Topeka 629 918 66.6% 100 0.1% 4.1% $115,917 21% 4.6
Wichita 2,106 2,684 58.7% 3,600 1.2% 3.5% $113,786 19% 3.0
Kentucky
Bowling Green 522 607 43.8% 900 1.4% 4.5% $109,275 21% 0.2
Lexington 1,818 2,342 45.7% (100) 0.0% 4.2% $133,497 23% 0.5
Louisville 3,762 5,021 56.1% 4,700 0.8% 5.3% $132,788 24% 1.7
Louisiana
Alexandria 585 593 62.4% (200) (0.3%) 3.4% $94,640 25% 4.1
Baton Rouge 3,492 5,647 62.3% 1,900 0.5% 3.4% $169,747 34% 5.5
Houma 684 702 58.8% 1,000 1.1% 2.5% $117,879 24% 4.9
Lafayette 1,232 1,611 31.5% 4,100 2.8% 2.6% $132,776 30% 5.0
Lake Charles 763 1,126 74.9% (900) (1.0%) 3.4% $106,947 23% 3.4
Monroe 332 407 33.7% 400 0.5% 3.9% $95,359 25% 3.6
New Orleans 3,799 6,824 51.3% 9,000 1.7% 3.0% $160,018 34% 5.1
Shreveport 1,299 1,780 58.0% 3,700 2.1% 4.1% $138,389 34% 5.5
Maine
Bangor 433 500 50.2% 100 0.2% 4.7% $127,050 27% 3.4
Portland 1,865 2,344 40.8% 500 0.3% 3.7% $237,125 37% 3.8
Maryland
Baltimore 4,180 5,928 30.3% 11,100 0.8% 3.6% $270,002 37% 8.2
Bethesda 2,095 3,711 30.4% 600 0.1% 2.6% $397,500 41% 6.4
Hagerstown 1,546 1,778 43.0% (200) (0.2%) 5.1% $183,879 29% 2.9
Salisbury 382 603 46.5% 200 0.4% 4.4% $161,807 31% 4.3
Massachusetts
Barnstable Town 645 741 15.0% (400) (0.4%) 4.5% $375,500 55% 3.9
Boston 1,686 4,300 40.6% 20,800 1.2% 3.3% $397,259 54% 7.2
Cambridge 1,621 2,798 37.4% 24,400 1.0% 3.6% $415,844 50% 5.4
Michigan
Ann Arbor 419 494 17.0% (2,000) (1.0%) 4.2% $180,322 25% 0.1
Battle Creek 110 209 33.5% (1,900) (3.2%) 5.9% $89,862 17% 0.1
Detroit 829 959 15.2% (31,700) (4.0%) 7.9% $90,172 18% 0.0
Flint 272 346 10.0% (9,700) (6.4%) 9.3% $96,221 19% 2.4
Grand Rapids 1,476 1,656 32.9% (500) (0.1%) 5.3% $128,637 23% 2.3
Holland 630 884 32.2% (1,400) (1.2%) 5.2% $148,395 22% 1.0
Jackson 191 335 33.3% (900) (1.5%) 6.5% $104,654 22% 4.8
Kalamazoo 678 1,003 40.7% (600) (0.4%) 4.9% $120,561 23% 2.2
Lansing 449 600 19.0% (1,200) (0.5%) 5.1% $112,540 20% 0.4
Muskegon 245 303 30.5% 100 0.2% 6.5% $97,190 21% 2.1
Niles 356 382 46.8% 1,900 3.0% 5.9% $125,491 24% 4.1
Saginaw 177 230 23.7% (3,400) (3.8%) 7.3% $73,099 16% 0.0
Warren 2,312 2,719 13.7% (19,200) (1.6%) 6.3% $161,557 22% 0.1
Minnesota
Duluth 814 975 56.9% 1,500 1.1% 5.7% $116,639 22% 6.5
Minneapolis 6,290 8,274 29.4% 13,000 0.7% 4.5% $213,250 28% 3.5
Rochester 608 678 33.6% 1,700 1.6% 4.2% $135,574 19% 1.0
St. Cloud 598 660 32.8% 1,300 1.3% 5.4% $136,217 23% 2.8
Mississippi
Gulfport-Biloxi 2,272 4,939 89.9% 2,700 2.5% 4.7% $148,737 32% 5.3
Hattiesburg 210 803 71.0% 600 1.0% 4.5% $98,653 25% 1.1
Jackson 2,549 2,629 58.3% 1,500 0.6% 4.5% $119,988 25% 0.7
Pascagoula 641 1,775 100.0% 2,700 4.8% 4.9% $115,355 24% 5.2
Missouri
Columbia 804 1,021 43.7% 1,300 1.4% 3.3% $129,868 26% 2.4
Jefferson City 217 230 20.0% 700 0.9% 3.7% $109,502 20% 3.1
Joplin 281 331 44.6% 1,200 1.5% 4.2% $86,046 21% 2.9
Kansas City 4,835 7,870 42.7% 6,800 0.7% 4.6% $147,793 23% 0.8
Springfield 1,486 3,054 59.7% 3,300 1.6% 3.8% $124,341 28% 4.1
St. Joseph 125 147 34.3% 2,000 3.4% 4.1% $91,561 18% 0.6
St. Louis 7,008 8,481 46.3% (5,000) (0.4%) 5.3% $176,250 31% 6.0
Montana
Billings 623 648 44.2% 2,300 2.9% 2.9% $143,236 24% 1.0
Missoula 462 597 53.0% (200) (0.3%) 3.7% $201,950 42% 5.3
Nebraska
Lincoln 926 1,135 41.9% 2,500 1.4% 2.8% $137,063 22% 3.2
Omaha 3,504 4,949 74.6% 5,200 1.1% 3.4% $136,553</